Analyses
Middle East
October 7, One Year on: Shia-Sunni Divisions Eclipse Arab Aversion to Israel
Giancarlo Bosetti , Alessandra Tommasi 4 October 2024
One year after the Hamas massacre on October 7th, the war has expanded into a regional conflict, involving Lebanon and later Iran. In Gaza, the death toll has reached nearly 42,000. Most of Hamas’ leadership – except for Yahya Sinwar – has been killed, as well as Hasan Nasrallah and much of Hezbollah’s leadership. Meanwhile, 97 Israeli hostages remain in Hamas’ hands, and violence in the West Bank has become increasingly frequent, with many analysts warning of a potential “Gaza-fication” of the area. Reset DOC reached Prof. Olivier Roy, Professor of Political Science at the European University Institute (Florence).
  • After Nasrallah: Why Hezbollah’s Grip Threatens Lebanon’s Future
    Riccardo Cristiano 2 October 2024
    According to the BBC, the missile attack on Hezbollah’s general command bunker is said to have caused 492 casualties, in addition to the wounded. The Israeli army has announced the killing, among others, of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and nearly the entire senior leadership of the party. The number of Lebanese casualties, especially in southern Lebanon and the Shiite neighborhoods of Beirut, remains unknown, as no one can yet account for those trapped beneath the rubble. Israeli forces have gained control of strategic positions near the border, while hand-to-hand combat between Hezbollah militants and Israeli soldiers has already claimed eight Israeli lives. Despite these developments, few believe Hezbollah will disappear
  • Rebuilding Iraq Amid Regional and Domestic Crises
    Ilaria Romano 7 August 2024
    Since the end of the war of liberation against ISIS in 2017, Iraq has experienced a situation of relative stability, meaning the absence of open conflict, regularly undermined by internal and regional crises. Involved in the tensions between Iran and Israel since the beginning of the war in Gaza, due to the ties of Iraqi Shiite militias with Tehran, the country has also worsened its relations with the United States, which still maintains military outposts on its territory
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    Hezbollah’s Gaza War Stance Deepens Divides in Lebanon
    Vanessa Breidy 31 July 2024
    Twenty-four hours after Israel’s declaration of war following October 7, 2023, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hasan Nasrallah announced a “war of support for Gaza” from South Lebanon. This declaration was made solely by the political armed party Hezbollah, not the Lebanese government, thus constituting a clear violation of Lebanese state sovereignty and the rule of law. This breach has elicited varied reactions from Lebanese parties, with some Christian parties declaring the inevitability of political system reform and emphasizing the necessity of opening up the debate as soon as the war ends.
  • Iranians Vote: A Chance to Break from the Khomeinist Core?
    Renzo Guolo 3 July 2024
    In the Iranian presidential elections, the moderate reformist Masoud Pezeshkian and the hard-line conservative Saeed Jalili are heading to a runoff. This is the result of the first round of elections held to designate Ebrahim Raisi’s successor, who died in a plane crash in May. The elections require a candidate to secure 50 percent of the votes to be elected in the first round.
  • Iran after Raisi: Elections Under the Revolutionary Guard’s Watch
    Renzo Guolo 24 May 2024
    The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, almost certainly the designated heir of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has exposed the contradictions at the heart of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Said contradictions lie both in the country’s institutional denomination – a true political oxymoron – and in its constitutional architecture, formed in 1979 when the revolution was still developing, and not yet wholly wedded to its Islamist matrix.
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