International Affairs Archives

Analyses

International Affairs

The world seems to have taken notice of Yemen—and of the strategic importance of the Red Sea—only after the outbreak of the Gaza crisis, when the Houthis began targeting commercial shipping transiting the area. Yet the events that have unfolded over the past months show that the Houthis are now a deeply rooted reality in Yemen’s own history: a force that controls roughly a quarter of the country, administers its territory efficiently, extracts resources from available fields, manufactures its own missiles and drones with reduced reliance on Iranian supplies, and continues to indoctrinate and recruit in order to expand its ranks and advance its political vision.

International Affairs
Iran: Bazaar Merchants’ Protests Shake the Regime
Renzo Guolo 5 January 2026

The protests over Iran’s economic crisis are putting the regime under severe strain. They risk acting as a detonator for an already highly unstable mix: the heavy impact of sanctions, the collapse of the rial to historic lows against the dollar, and an unprecedented energy and water crisis. These factors, compounded by systemic inefficiencies, are driving inflation to around 40 percent year on year. Taking to the streets are Tehran’s bazaar merchants, a group long decisive in determining whether power in Iran holds or collapses.
International Affairs
The Fragile Balance between Justice and Reconciliation in Post-Assad Syria
Emanuele Valenti 2 January 2026

“They arrived without warning and began killing people based on a single question: ‘Are you Sunni or Alawite?’ If you answered Alawite, you were dead.” Nine months on, Samir, 68, still struggles to talk about what happened last March in Baniyas, a town on Syria’s Mediterranean coast where hundreds of people were killed—almost all from the Alawite community, which until a few months earlier had been the Assads’ core base of support. Across the wider region, at least 1,500 people were killed.
International Affairs
Venezuela and the New U.S. National Security Strategy
Andre Diniz Pagliarini 17 December 2025

For months, U.S. naval forces have been gathering off Venezuela’s coast. The warships, the bomber flyovers, and the rising volume from Washington are not incidental. The likelihood of an actual intervention is not incidental. It is in line with the administration’s recently presented geopolitical priorities. The new National Security Strategy, released earlier this month, explicitly elevates the Western Hemisphere as a central arena of U.S. national security, linking migration, narcotics trafficking, and regional instability to the defense of the homeland.
International Affairs
Yuli Tamir: “Arab States and the Palestinian Authority Must Lead Beyond Hamas”
Alessandra Tommasi 6 November 2025

The ceasefire in Gaza, tied to Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, remains extremely fragile amid repeated violations. Among the latest escalations, an Israeli air raid overnight between October 28 and 29, launched in retaliation for the death of an IDF soldier and Hamas’s refusal to return the bodies of hostages, left more than a hundred people dead. While Hamas accuses Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of obstructing the entry of humanitarian convoys, uncertainty looms over the so-called “phase two” of the plan. On paper, the Palestinian group has agreed to relinquish direct control of the enclave, but not full demilitarization nor the international supervision envisaged by Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace.” The plan also makes no mention of the West Bank, fueling fears that Israel intends to solidify the separation between the two Palestinian territories. In this context, Reset DOC spoke with Yuli Tamir, former Israeli education minister, to discuss the prospects for peace and Israel’s political future.
International Affairs
Iran: The End of the Axis and Strategic Adaptation
Pegah Zohouri 6 November 2025

Over the past two years, Iran has suffered the most significant blows to its deterrence capacity since the founding of the Islamic Republic, losing much of the regional influence it once wielded through loyal proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and even Yemen. Once able to mobilize allied forces across the Middle East in pursuit of shared interests against Israel, Tehran now faces a drastically diminished strategic position. Following Hamas’s October 2023 attacks, Israel systematically targeted Iranian proxies—crippling Hamas in Gaza, weakening Hezbollah in Lebanon, and, with the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, depriving Iran of its crucial Syrian ally. Subsequent Israeli strikes deep into Iranian territory further exposed Tehran’s intelligence failures, limited military reach, and diplomatic isolation. Yet the current retrenchment of Iran and its allies does not signify collapse; rather, it represents a phase of strategic recalibration within an evolving regional order characterized by multi-alignment and shifting power centers.
International Affairs
Cengiz Aktar: “Turkey Confronts Tel Aviv’s New Regional Hegemony”
Alessandra Tommasi 6 November 2025

Over the past decade, Turkey has tried to carve out a role as a regional power, swinging between neo-Ottoman ambition and economic pragmatism. Ankara has multiplied its interventions: backing Qatar, confronting the Kurds in Iraq and Syria, and deepening its involvement in Libya. Yet since October 7, 2023, the balance of power in the Middle East has shifted again. The Gaza war, the reshuffling of alliances, and the weakening of the so-called “axis of resistance” have all curbed Ankara’s claims to leadership, according to Cengiz Aktar, Turkish dissident and professor of Political Science at the University of Athens, in an interview with Reset DOC.
International Affairs
Olivier Roy: “Israel Made a Palestinian State Impossible”
Alessandra Tommasi 6 November 2025

Two years after October 7, the Middle East is undergoing a profound transformation. Israeli assertiveness, Iran’s weakening influence, and the reshaping of al-Sharaa’s Syria are redefining the regional balance, while fragile truces and new hierarchies of power reveal a landscape still in flux. In this context, French political scientist and leading expert on political Islam, Olivier Roy, reflects for Reset DOC on the region’s prospects, the deadlock of the Palestinian question, and the evolving relationship between Israel and its neighbors.
International Affairs
What Now for the Middle East?
Pasquale Ferrara 6 November 2025

What are the defining features of the hypothetical “new Middle East” emerging after the tragic events of October 7, 2023? Beyond the unspeakable tragedy unfolding in Gaza—a catastrophe not only of immense humanitarian proportions but also of deep political inconsistency—several recent developments stand out. These markers help illuminate the ongoing attempt to reshape the region, not necessarily toward lasting stability, but more plausibly toward a provisional armistice. Such a phase, though conditional, would nonetheless be welcome if it could create the groundwork for a genuine space for negotiation on the fundamental issues of the conflict.
International Affairs
The Gulf Between Defending the Vision Frameworks and a New Security Architecture
Luca Marin 6 November 2025

Two years after the events of October 7, 2023, the Middle East is undergoing a profound phase of redefinition. The conflict between Israel and Hamas, rising tensions with Iran, and intensifying global competition have prompted the Gulf countries to reassess their strategic priorities. In this context, the perspective of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) revolves around two central axes: the protection of their domestic transformation programs—the so-called Visions—and the safeguarding of security within an increasingly multipolar environment.