A few days from the start of parliamentary elections in Egypt, Tahrir Square looked as it did on January 25 when the revolt that brought down President Hosni Mubarak broke out. Young people have returned to occupy the centre of the square in what the social network activists and bloggers call “the second revolution,” triggered because the government and the SCAF, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces “want the first one to fail.”
The SCAF finds itself in a difficult position. The army should not play any role in the elections, except to guarantee a peaceful election process and then return to its duties of defending the nation. In the past 10 months the SCAF has opened a space for political dialogue and has not stopped the formation of new parties, as many observers have noted. There has been a proliferation of new parties.
But the military does not accept criticism. A very recently published report by Amnesty International now in circulation has denounced human rights violations against jailed activists who have been sentenced by military tribunals. The military appears intent on reinforcing its own power. There have been two recent government proposals that have upset activists and political forces. One calls for the SCAF to nominate 80 out of the 100 commission members charged with writing the new Egyptian constitution and the second is that the military budget cannot be submitted to parliamentary scrutiny.
The fact that Egypt does not have a president ensures that the army will continue to govern after parliamentary elections, because the current system ensures that the government and prime minister do not respond to parliament, but directly to the president, an appointment currently held by the army. Beyond the facile promises, between parliamentary elections and drafting the new constitution, the presidential elections should be held in a year, but in the meantime the army will continue to exercise power.
The activists, politicians and intellectuals are annoyed by this lengthy transition under military auspices. They are split between those who support the need to elect a parliament charged with drafting a “super constitution” (difficult for a new president to amend) with a government headed by a strong prime minister that, in the mean time, runs the country. There are those who want presidential elections right away and emphasize the need for a rapid transition to civilian rule. For these people it is not a case of who would best govern, but of not betraying the spirit of the revolution. Additionally, conservatives have convinced people that secular is synonymous with atheist, and for now this term is being used.
Analysts and observers maintain that the military’s imminent exit from the Egyptian political scene is improbable. Responding to the violence that erupted in the past few days in Tahrir Square, in which at least 30 people were killed and 1,400 injured, the government, predictably, submitted its resignation and the military have accepted it, opening a dialogue with all political forces. The Muslim Brotherhood, whose success in the elections that begin on November 28 and end in March is a given, accepted to meet the military authorities and called on their supporters not to take part in the massive gathering that took place in Tahrir Square on Tuesday, November 22. It is a way, says the Brotherhood, of avoiding more bloodshed.
Much depends on the agreement that political forces are able to extract. Do they line up with the demonstrators or open a dialogue with the SCAF? And in what way? We will have to wait and see.
Through their representative, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has, in the meantime, let it be known it has reached an agreement with the delegations of the main political parties on the formation of a national unity government. According to military sources, the Council is considering the possibility of naming Mohammed el Baradei, former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as the new prime minister, replacing Essam Sharaf who resigned. According to these sources, el Baradei’s candidature should find favour with many political parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood. Another possible candidate is Abdelmoinem Abul Fotuh, a potential presidential candidate and former Muslim Brotherhood member.
The military’s hold on power could loosen. Will the street be satisfied? The answer lies in the standoff between the young activists, Islamists and the military, the same military that facilitated the fall of Hosni Mubarak. It is not at all clear who will take their place and send them away.
Translated by Francesca Simmons