The latest round in the match between Turkey and Israel took place on the football field, with a Europa League match between the Turkish team, Besiktas, and the Israeli team, Maccabi Tel Aviv, ending in a 5-1 victory for the Turks. The ongoing tension between Turkey and Israel was reflected in a 2,500 police presence, as well as heavy airport security and few Israeli fans. Yet only a few months ago the countries had excellent commercial relations, with $2 billion in trade in just the first six months of this year and a 39% increase in Israeli exports to Turkey compared to 2010, when Turkey represented 2.6% of Israel’s total foreign trade.
The break began to a certain extent in the U.N.’s Palmer Report on the Israeli boarding of the Mavi Marmara, which cost the lives of nine Turkish pro-Palestinian activists. The activists were part of the Freedom Flotilla and were headed to Gaza to run the Israeli blockade. The U.N. report says that on that occasion Israeli forces used “excessive and unreasonable force.” However, the legality of the maritime restrictions was not questioned in the report, a blockade that Israel justifies as necessary to stop the flow of arms. Therefore, although Israel is willing to “express regret” and pay damages for the deaths, according to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, there is no reason for an official apology to Turkey, as requested by Erdogan, seeing that the operation was “carried out as a self-defence measure and not with the intent of attacking anyone.”
But, the diplomatic crisis, marked by the September 2nd recall of the Israeli ambassador from Ankara (who, in any case, was at the end of his tour), has more to do with regional strategy and respective internal politics. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s visit to Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the countries most affected by the Arab Spring, shows that Turkey is closely involving itself in the changing power balance in North Africa and the Middle East. The model the Turkish leader is presenting to states in transition is that of a secular government in a country with an overwhelming Muslim majority, where Islam and democracy are not mutually exclusive. The goal is to show that Turkey is a credible example to emulate, even if the price is the realignment of the “good neighbour” foreign policy, which has already deteriorated with the Syrian crisis.
The energy question is also an underlying force in the story of Turkish/Israeli relations, with discovery of natural gas reserves in the Mediterranean between Cyprus, Israel, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt. The Israeli companies that surveyed the area estimate reserves of 450 billion cubic meters of gas. The Israeli minister of energy, Uzi Landau, let it be known that his country intends to defend the gas in the area. This statement came soon after Turkey’s announcement that it was to send three naval ships into the Mediterranean, off the coasts of the countries concerned, to officially escort ships sailing close to the Gaza blockade. This element of energy policy also reopens the Turkish-Cypriot issue for Ankara.
Israel must also face problems posed by a new Egypt along the particularly uneasy Sinai border, just as the Palestinian National Authority is preparing for its audition before the U.N. to obtain nationhood status within the 1967 borders. In anticipation of the September 20th showdown, the European Union is attempting to find a common position on the issue, to induce the PNA to go to the General Assembly and not to the Security Council to initially only request the nominal status of a “non-member state.” The Israeli government has labelled this solution as “unwelcome.”
Finally, Israel also faces internal pressures, with demonstrations by angry citizens, upset by the government’s free-trade policies at a time of social crisis. On September 4th 400,000 took to the streets of Tel Aviv demanding Netanyahu’s resignation. In August, a student march turned into a demonstration of 300,000 people. The disintegration of internal consensus was also evident in an opinion poll conducted by the daily newspaper Yediot Ahronot, which found that at least 45% of Israelis fear for the future of democracy in their country.
Translated by Francesca Simmons