The middle class, a slice of society that for decades remained limited, has been exceptionally vocal. Once squeezed between a minority of super-rich and the huge swath of the poor masses, the middle class has grown significantly both in numbers and has seen a jump in its quality of life over the last 10 years thanks to a process of economic and societal development. Now it is mostly members of this class exerting greater pressure on the government for a better, more transparent, modern and efficient system.
It is no longer just the poverty stricken, who benefited under the policies of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and current president Dilma Vana Rousseff’s administrations, to demand more efforts on the part of the government. The voices of those who never were or are no longer living in poverty are increasingly sounding in. The mantra remains the same: better health care, school, welfare, policy transparency and management of public expenditures.
Economic figures
A long period of stability began during the early years of 2000 and continued with strong economic growth, improving the situation of millions of citizens. For over a decade Brazilians have been altogether happy, satisfied and even willing to turn a blind eye to the numerous government scandals.
But when economic growth began to decline and adverse effects of the welfare state began show, especially reflected in real estate prices that skyrocketed in the big cities, the illusion seemingly vanished. And intolerance grew. Wasteful spending for overblown projects, especially in Rio de Janeiro, along with the shadow of unbridled speculation and corruption, brought about citizen revolt. Thousands of people let it be known that they were all too aware of the country’s structural weaknesses, and cried out for improvements, sometimes using drastic measures to protest.
Cracks in the Brazilian miracle have begun to appear over the last two years, resulting in an economic slowdown, have also worried international organizations. On October 2, Moody’s downgraded the country’s securities rating from “positive” to “stable”, however, the agency did not downgrade the overall BAA2 rating. The investment and gross domestic product (GDP) relation was fingered as unsatisfactory, remaining weaker than that of other similar countries. A main cause pointed to was the drop in the level of investment in the country from 20.2% of GDP in 2010 to 17.6% last year.
Adding to the country’s woes, in recent months a growing appeal of other Central and South American countries — Mexico, Chile, Costa Rica and Panama — has threatened to undermine the Brazilian leadership. Equally as damaging is Brazil’s weak GDP growth forecast, that hovered at approximately 2% in 2013 and remains the same for 2014, is the lowest among the ‘Brics’ (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies.
Lower investment and reduced growth also translate into less infrastructure development and maintenance — one of the prime problems hampering the country’s growth and modernization. A deficit due to chronic delays in infrastructure planning and implementation, currently too weak for the transportation and export of raw materials — a factor that has traditionally fed the South American giant’s economy — is another problem cobbling Brazil’s advancement.
Brazil’s industry has also lagged behind some of its more ruthless competitors. In fact, the relationship between Brazil and China, where most of South America’s raw materials are shipped, and the various trade agreements between the two countries to promote infrastructure development south of the equator, has not prevented low-cost Chinese products from impacting Brazilian industries. Products that flood the market despite Brazil’s protectionist policies and that are being consumed by the millions of poor who have recently benefited from higher living standards brought on by State aid.
And then there is the insistent call, mostly on an international level, to carry out serious pension reforms — a taboo topic but for any government, including Brazil as election are nearing.
Even the oil industry that contributed to much-desired energy independence is apparently in distress. Figures released by energy giant Petrobras have not been encouraging and extraction remains below capacity. The “miraculous” discovery of pre-salt oil reserves that once brought tears of joy has now been countered by the technical difficulties of extraction. On October 21, an auction was called to entrust the management of the Campo de Libra area where the pre-salt reserves are concentrated to a foreign multinational, evoking negative reactions despite the government and Energy Minister Edison Lobão’s defense that the move would help revolutionize and modernize the industry. Trade unions and opposition parties leading the battle, along with the majority of the population, are convinced that giving up the strategic resource is a mistake and an attack on sovereignty. The auction for the mining-rights sale off is to be held at a hotel in Rio de Janeiro.
Security crisis and threats to the country’s image
Consider the protests in recent months, in particular those under the shadow of the iconic Cristo Redentore landmark, when the government sent army patrols to an area that was already armored and militarized several days before. It was a decision that threw gasoline on the fire of protest, especially for all those who are rightly concerned of a dangerous authoritarian turn in the management of public safety. Since June until today there has been an increase in violence in the streets, especially during protests. While the protagonists of the summer’s demonstrations were mostly older adults and members of the middle class, in recent months there has been a change. Peaceful demonstrators have been infiltrated by younger, and increasingly more violent groups ready for guerrilla warfare.
Faced with a growing number of young Brazilians chomping at the bit for clashes, authorities have done nothing but send forces that are not up to the task of keeping order. In particular, military police trained in defense methods typically used by dictators or private contractors. Indeed, Brazil’s military police, used for the upkeep of public order and to patrol the streets, has not undergone substantial reforms since the country’s period of the authoritarian dictatorship that ruled Brazil from March 31, 1964 to March 15, 1985. The use of force at public demonstrations is more suited to state of war and not that of modern policing used in democratic societies for civic order. A recently passed legislation introduced a national security law normally used against terrorism and political crimes, organized crime and insurgent criminal groups. This initiative has been perceived by many human rights groups and watchdogs as an attempt to curb dissent.
What is clear is that all these events offer a very complex and worrying picture of the country’s security issues. With the upcoming Football World Cup 2014 and Rio Olympic Games in 2016, efforts to management public order are vital.
The looming question is whether Brazil, spurred by enthusiasm, has not bitten off more than it can chew by taking on the World Cup and other major events, threatening to rewrite the happy ending of a fairy tale that has lasted over 10 years.
Translated by Kathryn Carlisle