These soaps are, however, only one of the many elements in an ambitious political-economic strategy renamed “neo-Ottoman” and obsession for Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. It consists in broadening Turkey’s radius of action to the old imperial area, the Gulf, the Middle East and especially the Balkans, by emphasising the attractiveness of the “Turkish model”, a balanced mix of Islam, democracy, free market and modernity.
It would be restrictive to think that Davutoglu intends to develop the plot mainly by relying on the importance of the past. That is not the case. In recent years Turkey has invested a great deal in the Balkans, especially economically. Two very important agreements have been signed with Bulgaria, one aimed at creating an energy grid (gas), the other at linking Sofia and Istanbul with a fast and modern train. Important agreements have also been entered in with Macedonia and Kosovo, with private Turkish investors building a motorway linking Kosovo’s capital, Pristina, to Macedonia’s capital, Skopje. In Macedonia, Turkish investors won the contract for building an underground stretch of motorway into which all the through-traffic suffocating the Macedonian city will be rerouted. And this is not all. Trade with Serbia is soaring, and, compared to the previous year, in 2010 it rose by a massive 110%. Banks are also playing an important role with Ziirat (the second largest Turkish bank in terms of capitalisation) and Halk leading the way.
Diplomacy has been hard at work and Turkey achieved a note-worthy result when, mediating between Bosnia and Serbia, it managed to bring both countries to sign the April 2010 Istanbul Statement. Putting an end to a period marked by diplomatic coldness, this agreement sanctions the revival of high-ranking diplomatic activity, and the re-launching dialogue and cooperation. The Istanbul Statement was the most effective and visible diplomatic operation, but it is not the only one. Turkey provides constant support for Macedonia’s NATO membership, delayed due to Greece’s veto because of an ongoing dispute about what name the most southern of the former Yugoslav republics should have at an international level.
All in all Turkey is ensuring it assumes important positions in the Balkans, but in spite of this one wonders whether the “neo-Ottoman” strategy will work in this region. For two different reasons the answer is midway between a nay and a yay. The first is that, compared to the Gulf area and the Middle East, the Turkish model is less suited to the Balkans where Islam is not homogenous, but a patchwork of communities, thereby restricting Ankara’s reach. Evidence of this appears when investments and projects sponsored by Turkey are welcomed with open arms, while there are almost always complaints when past mistrust and cultural differences re-emerge. Bosnia is emblematic with its Muslim majority very favourable to Turkish initiatives, while the Serbs, who form the second largest ethnic group followed by the Croats, complain about Turkey’s excessive interference.
The second reason concerns relations with Europe. Brussels, and also Washington, perceive Turkish penetration in the Balkans as a competitive challenge, and perhaps indeed it is. On the other hand, the impression is that the neo-Ottoman strategy has no fixed timeframe or objectives, but instead follows a pragmatic programme – hanging its hat wherever possible – and that it is exploiting the E.U.’s moment of weakness caused by an attempt to resolve the economic crisis. In other words, Turkey is taking action wherever the Europeans have halted their own or are unable to pay it the attention it requires.
Some analysts, however, have a negative opinion of this competition between European and Turkish soft power, because this puts the Balkans right in the middle. It is thought that cooperation would be better than competition, and the Centre for European Integration Strategies in Geneva recently said that, in this sense, it would be better if the European Union were to merge the process of enlargement to include the Balkans with a resumption of the now stagnant negotiations on Turkey’s membership. On this subject one would have to ask Frau Merkel to provide an explanation.
Translated by Francesca Simmons
Image: cc Greenwich Photography