How important was the anti-immigration, and in particular the anti-Muslim agenda in ensuring the Northern League’s’ victory in the elections held on April 13th and 14th? One should bear in mind for example Roberto Calderoli’s vivid controversy with his “pig-day”, protesting against the building of the mosque in Bologna.
The votes of those supporting The Northern League are based on a number of different elements, but there is no doubt that the subjects of immigration and security played an extremely important role, especially in the battle against illegal immigration and issues concerning Islam, an identity issue close to the hearts of voters. The subject addressing cultures and religions differing from traditional ones, always generates mistrust. At a local level, the Northern League based its battle on the accessibility of mosques, trying to address the use buildings are put to by referring to the fact that everyone is equal in the eyes of the law rather than an approach involving opposition to religious freedom. ‘The Northern League’ therefore addressed identity, one of the elements of its success, as well as security, taxation, and the conflict between the centre of power and the regions.
Did this attitude of opposition to immigrants, also present during the election campaign, affect the Democratic Party (PD), which seemed very reticent on this subject?
The PD is a young party, and was unable to present a solid political culture. The Northern League had the copyright to exploit these issues. Hence, recent speeches by Walter Veltroni on security seemed totally new, and there was no time for them to permeate the political culture, as battles such as these are won over time. As far as immigration was concerned, the centre-left’s attitude was not reductive or unmindful regarding these problems; but it always tried to emphasise the optimism of goodwill, underlining a positive approach, without however managing to understand the conflictual aspects Italians worry about. What influenced the vote, in addition to security and immigration, was the importance of global migration, especially in areas such as the Pedemontana, which goes from the Veneto Region to Lombardy, or in small towns, where the local impact of immigration has been significant. Immigrants have frequently appeared as separate communities, due to their lifestyles or the manner in which they relate to the space surrounding them and this does not encourage the integration process. Paradoxically, the fact that immigration has been widespread and all-pervading has been perceived by many as something that is also changing social aspects for some time considered fixed and unchangeable. This aspect has been experienced as a negative side of globalisation, to be reacted against not simply with a generic appeal to the optimism of goodwill. This was the left’s limitation; its inability to assume responsibility for the contradictions generating ‘g-local’ processes which have not been addressed in a manner understandable to the population.
To what extent will the Northern League influence the new government’s foreign policy?
The new government will obviously not show great openness to the Islamic world in general, but I do believe that on this point Italian foreign policy will be transformed not only by the Northern League, but by Silvio Berlusconi’s party itself, whoever may be appointed Foreign Minister. Berlusconi will change our policies on various issues, from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to Iran, from Afghanistan to The Lebanon.
Seeing the experience of the last Berlusconi government and statements made during the election campaign, it is easy to predict that the new government will be far more pro-Israel than the centre-left was. But can a Mediterranean country such as Italy is, which in recent years has established strong commercial relations with various Arab states (such as Mubarak’s Egypt) assume a prejudicial one-sided position as far as the Israeli-Palestinian situation is concerned?
No, there are of course systemic and geopolitical bonds that go beyond the ideas of any individual leader. A Mediterranean country cannot but have good relations with the Arab world. There is no doubt however that the famous “equidistance” assumed by former Foreign Minister Massimo D’Alema will be replaced by a closeness to Israel.
Let us address missions abroad. Berlusconi’s former Minister of Defence, Antonio Martino, said during the election campaign that Italy should withdraw its troops from Lebanon and send them back to Iraq. Is this the centre-right’s agenda or not?
These may be their intentions, however, it is obvious that these decisions are not taken alone. In Lebanon in particular, rules of engagement are decided by the United Nations and not by Italy. As far as Iraq is concerned, I do not think one can redeploy troops after withdrawing them, it’s too complicated also as far as organisational issues are concerned. At best Italy could intensify its role by training members of the Iraqi army. The new government however, will probably be readier to comply with American requests to change the role of its contingent in Afghanistan, also as far as rules of engagement are concerned.
Would this also mean deploying troops to Southern Afghanistan, where the battle against the Taliban is more intense, as requested by the Americans?
Perhaps, if there is a rotation of contingents. For the moment the only countries really fighting in the front line are the Americans, the Dutch, the British and the Canadians.
Will Italy be more uncompromising now in the negotiations concerning Iranian nuclear power?
This will depend a lot on positions assumed by the French and the Americans. It is probable that Rome will follow the tough stance assumed by Sarkozy. Italy will, however, have to deal with not only a possible increase in the price of oil in the event of conflict with Teheran, but above all with its extremely important financial interests in that country.
To what extent will Italian policy depend on the results of the American elections?
The impact of Italy’s new foreign policy will be greatly affected by the results of the American elections in November. As happened in the past with Bush, only with support from the Republicans will Berlusconi be able to implement policies significantly different to those of the last Prodi government. Should instead a Democrat be elected to the White House, he will probably have to moderate his choices and follow policies characterised by greater international realism, both regards to Europe and the USA. The election campaign appears to indicate that Obama’s position is tougher and more interventionist than that of Hillary Clinton as far as Pakistan and Afghanistan are concerned, while the Senator from Illinois seems more open to dialogue on issues concerning the Middle East, radical Arab forces, Iraq and in particular Iran.
Translation by Francesca Simmons