Data from Sunday’s presidential elections confirmed a trend already seen in the general election in which the Nida Tounes party won most of the votes in the Sahel region (Nabeul, Sousse, Monastir, Mahdia), in the governorates of “greater Tunis” and Sfax. Nida, however, also received great support in some of the cities affected by the economic crisis, such as Sidi Bouzid.

Al-Marzuqi, instead, won broad consensus in Gabes, Gafsa, Tatouine and Gasserine. Although Ennahda – the Tunisian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood – did not have a candidate in the presidential elections, its members voted for Al-Marzuqi.

Nida Tounes’ triumph

Essebsi was the main promoter in the creation of an anti-Islamic front, Nida Tounes, following the elections of the National Constituent Assembly in which Ennahda had enjoyed a relative majority, and the formation of the Troika. Considered by many a “personal political party” centred on the elderly leader’s charismatic personality, Nida Tounes is still a party undergoing evolution, bringing together at least three different schools of thought; the members of the Destourian Movement, heirs to Habib Bourghiba; part of the trade union movement, represented by Tayyeb Baccouche; intellectuals and academics.

A number of Ben Ali’s disbanded RCD party have joined Essebsi’s party. It is for this reason that Nida Tounes has been accused of being a new version of the “old regime.” In spite of this, in the recent general elections, voters rewarded the movement with a relative majority. Nida, therefore, leads parliament and controls both branches of the executive, the government and the presidency of the republic. It is not yet known whether the next government will be one of national unity, also including Ennahda, or whether it will exclude Islamists in favour of other movements, such as Hamma Hammemi’s Popular Front or Slim Riahi’s Patriotic Union.

Nida Tounes has conceded the position of deputy speaker to one of Ennahda’s most representative leaders, the moderate Abd al-Fattah Muru. On the one hand this could be seen as a sign of détente, but, on the other, it may only be a symbolic gesture that does not signify the Islamists involvement in the next government.

Ennahda’s future

Essebsi’s victory has had an effect on Ennahda. Well before the second ballot for the presidential elections was held, Hamadi Jebali, prime minister of the first Troika government, announced on his Facebook page that he was leaving the party. Jebali had come into conflict with the strategy suggested by Ennahda’s leader Al-Ghannushi, a strategy debated and voted on by the Shura Council, and involving the decision not to present a candidate for the presidential elections. Jebali himself had said he would be available as a candidate.

In spite of a number of controversial statements, Jebali enjoys broad popularity because the day after Shukri Belaid’s murder he had suggested the government should be dissolved to be replaced by a government of technocrats. His leaving the party can be considered an alarm bell, since Jebali was one of the signatories of the Islamic movement’s first manifestos, even before it chose the name Ennahda. He has, however, emphasised that he has not broken off relations with the rest of the party’s leadership and that his intention to form a new party should not be perceived as creating antagonisms in the Islamist camp.

Habib el-Louz also expressed his dissatisfaction with the party strategy, which has turned out to be a disaster. A few days before the second ballot for the presidential elections was held, El-Louz spoke to the press and explicitly invited Ennahda’s base to vote for Al-Marzuqi.

A number of analysts have already envisaged a split in Ennahda, a scenario that certainly cannot be excluded, but one that at the same time Al-Ghannushi will try and avoid at all costs. He had already held out a hand to Essebsi after his victory in the general election, and, following the results of the presidential elections, congratulated the leader of Nida Tounes, inviting him to follow the consensual legacy of the Troika governments and avoid polarization.

Fear of restoration

Essebsi’s victory has sparked protests in some cities in central-southern Tunisia. Anger has been expressed in Tatouine, where Nida Tounes is simply perceived as an emanation of the old regime. Essebsi has already said that the new prime minister will not be a politician from the Ben Ali era and that his party will not govern alone, but rather with broad consensus.

These statements have been made at a time in which Tunisian public opinion is experiencing a degree of perplexity due to the fact that two of the state’s three powers have been monopolised by the same political party, a party based on explicit anti-Islamist principles and one that is defining its own identity. Al-Marzuqi has conceded defeat and said he is ready to be part of the government. It is for this reason that he will not present an appeal to the administrative court.

It remains to be seen what Ennahda’s destiny will be. The Islamist party has been imprudent in placing all its hopes in the general election, underestimating the importance of the presidential office. Even if the party should be assigned a position in the next government, Ennahda seems destined to play a role as the opposition, while also addressing disintegration from within.

Translated by Francesca Simmons

The original version of this article was published on AffarInternazionali