The “Regime Change” of Trump’s Second Presidency: Political Messianism vs. Rule of Law

In the history of the United States, this is the era of Donald Trump. The transition from Joe Biden to Trump does not represent a normal transition of power, but rather a regime change. It marks the rise of charismatic leadership and, in the eyes of many, even a form of political messianism, often at odds with the constitutional rule of law. Trump’s second presidency steers America onto a path few – especially in Europe – had anticipated or even imagined, opening up unpredictable scenarios both domestically and internationally.

Far from being an accident of history, Donald Trump’s first election in 2016 – and his second in 2024 – reflect the trajectory of an America that, since the beginning of the century, has sought different ways to become “great again.” The shock of September 11, 2001, first reignited a nationalism rooted in a never-extinguished sense of exceptionalism. Then came the backlash to Barack Obama’s election in 2008, embodied by the “Tea Party” movement, which served as an ideological and social precursor to Trumpism. A businessman who declared bankruptcy several times and later became the star of a television show, Trump entered national politics in 2011 by questioning Obama’s citizenship and, by extension, the legitimacy of his presidency.

The American crisis deepened during Obama’s second term, particularly between 2013 and 2014, with the birth of the “Black Lives Matter” movement, which spotlighted the ongoing tensions surrounding race and ethnicity, especially the experiences of African Americans. In the summer of 2015, Trump formally entered the political arena, coinciding with preparations for Pope Francis’ first and only trip to the United States that September. His first term in office (2017-2021) ultimately served as a prelude to his second presidency, which began on January 20, 2025 – four years after the violent attempt to overturn the result of Joe Biden’s election, an event Trump and his supporters, including his vice president, the newly converted Catholic (2019) J.D. Vance, have continued to defend as legitimate.

There are many differences between Trump’s first and second presidencies, but the most significant is the absence, around the president, of figures capable of – or willing – to normalize a personal power that openly challenges the constitutional and legal order, both domestically and internationally. The expansion of an authoritarian presidential power is accompanied by the weakening of Congress and the transformation of the Republican Party into a court of acolytes devoted to the infallibility of Trump.

Another hallmark of Trump’s second presidency is the emergence of a nationalist populism allied with the “broligarchy,” embodied most prominently by Elon Musk – the most emblematic figure among the new masters of the techno-futurist universe. During Trump’s first term, the leaders of this new “gilded age” had largely kept their distance; now they have done everything possible to ingratiate themselves with the new strongman.

After the dress rehearsal of Trump’s first term, Trump’s second presidency now advances by aligning the United States with other systems of illiberal democracy, exerting global guidance and contributing to a redefinition of the meaning of “the West.” A copycat effect is visible among the world’s current “strongmen”: Orban’s Hungary, Erdogan’s Turkey, Netanyahu’s Israel, Modi’s India, Nayib Bukele’s El Salvador, and, of course, Putin’s Russia.

This system of illiberal democracy entails ignoring the rule of law and judicial injunctions regarding habeas corpus for certain categories of legal residents – especially students from Muslim and African countries, but also Latin Americans who accidentally fall into the clutches of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement). It means intimidating the free press by branding journalists as “enemies of the people.” It means dismantling the Department of Education and threatening universities – particularly the liberal Ivy League institutions – with financial retaliation. It also means pressuring universities to remain silent on certain issues, such as Palestine, by issuing an executive order that defines “antisemitism” as broadly as possible, encompassing even criticism of the Israeli government. It means attempting to impose an “official” nationalist ideology on the country’s great cultural institutions – such as the Smithsonian – while rejecting efforts to critically reexamine the impact of racism on American history, particularly on ethnic and racial minorities. Paradoxically, among the institutions capable of resisting Trumpism, the strongest appears to be Wall Street – a fact that speaks volumes about the genetic mutation within “democracy in America”, to borrow the title of Alexis de Tocqueville’s famous work.

Internationally, Trump’s second presidency marks a radical reorientation of U.S. foreign policy in a transactional – and often predatory – direction toward all countries. It also entails an abandonment of the traditional transatlantic alliance in favor of a pact with Putin’s Russia, a shift already producing enormous consequences across Europe, especially in the East and Ukraine. Trump’s foreign policy will also impact relations with the Vatican, aiming to influence the Holy See’s international diplomacy, particularly regarding China. The appointment of Brian Burch as U.S. ambassador to the Holy See is emblematic of this new course, which departs in important ways from the more institutional tone of Trump’s first term. Burch, co-founder and president of the advocacy group “CatholicVote” – which has campaigned vigorously for Trump over the last decade –in the past repeatedly accused Pope Francis of sowing confusion within the Church.

The start of Trump’s second presidency has caught many religious organizations off guard, as they find themselves targeted by decisions aimed at reducing federal government activities – and, consequently, funding for organizations that provide social services on the government’s behalf. Bishops who once viewed the rise of Trumpism sympathetically – as a response to the perceived excesses of “woke” culture, and DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) programs, and gender policies – now face an epochal shift in the relationship between church and state, one that moves toward new forms of government control over religious institutions. It feels as if a century has passed since these same conservative-leaning bishops mounted a frontal opposition to the Obama presidency and its healthcare reforms beginning in 2010. Today, by contrast, there is no sign of the urgent national opposition that once mobilized against Obama. Some individual bishops and episcopal commissions have raised their voices and pursued legal action, but there is no broad Catholic mobilization in response to the regime change underway.

In defense of a very different political and religious ideal, many distance themselves from Trumpism by insisting, “This is not America.” It is certainly not the America that I imagined when I first arrived in the U.S. in 2008, during the election campaign and eventual victory of Barack Obama. Yet, politically and religiously, Trumpism brings to the surface pages of American history long forgotten or believed obsolete: the invocation of exceptional presidential war powers against segments of the country’s own citizens and residents; and an integralist, fundamentalist vision of ​​national – and nationalist – Christianity.

The principal novelty, from a religious perspective, is the ascent to power, particularly through Vice President J.D. Vance, of a new strain Catholicism: neo-traditionalist in theology yet closely allied with the powerful interests of Silicon Valley; a Catholicism that publicly and politically wields faith as a weapon, that does not hesitate escalate theologically conflict with the Vatican, and that draws strength from a militant, revanchist and para-schismatic fringe within American Catholicism.

G.K. Chesterton once observed that “America is a nation with the soul of a church.” Today, however, all the elements of that equation have become unknowns, casting uncertainty over what was once the leading country of the so-called “free world” and one of the pivotal nations for the future of Christianity.

 

 

 

Cover photo: US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump chats with Archbishop of New York Timothy M. Dolan during the 79th Annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner at the Hilton Midtown in New York, October 17, 2024. (Photo by Timothy A. Clary / AFP)


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