Just before former Tunisian President Ben Ali surprisingly fled his nation, an Arab journalist asked Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abu El-Gheit whether his country would suffer from a domino effect. The answer was disdainful and laconic; “One should not even say such idiotic things!” The question instead had been extremely pertinent. The domino effect following events in Tunisia, the ones wanted by the Arab populations and feared by their governments, have become an undeniable fact. The same causes lead to the same consequences. There is no difference between Tunisia and Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Libya, Algeria or any other country. In differing ways the countries share the same phenomena of social unease, corrupt managerial classes, lack of democratic participation in political life starting from the lower classes, as well as the alienation of the young. Arab regimes are shaken and now attempting to remedy matters. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, just like his Yemeni colleague Ali Abdullah Salah, has said he will not stand in the next presidential elections and will not hand power down to his son.
Algeria President Abdelaziz Bouteflika has asked the cabinet to prepare a plan for revoking the state of emergency that has lasted for nineteen years. The Tunisian scenario remains open to a variety of developments. It is not wrong to state that Tunisia is becoming a model, a prototype for social change from within, after the failure of change imposed from the exterior according to the thesis that democracy must be exported even using tanks. The result is a catastrophic one as Iraq’s never-ending tragedy proves. The real protagonists of the Arab revolution are the young who have managed to defeat censorship systems, thanks to the use of new technologies such as the internet. The larger Arab language media such as Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya also continue to play a fundamental role. Faced with the protests of young Egyptians filling the streets and squares since January 15th, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has decided (at last) to appoint the head of the Secret Services General Omar Suleimana Vice President and General Ahmed Shafik as Prime Minister. Arab TV networks have continuously broadcast images of Mubarak at Army Chief of Staff headquarters surrounded by his Defence Minister and Chief of Staff, while following repressive ‘operations’ against protesters. There is no doubt, Mubarak has declared war on his people and sadly he is not the only one in the Arab world.
One phase has come to an end and another is beginning. The excuse of the war on terrorism and extremism used by Arab regimes no longer works. Positions assumed in western capitals are seriously disquieting. In an interview with the Corriere della Sera, Italy’s Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said, “I believe one must strongly support the government of countries, from Morocco to Egypt, where there are kings or heads of state who have created secular regimes that keep out extremism. The number one priority is the prevention of extremism and the embryos of terrorism.” Instead of supporting democratisation in Arab countries, Frattini praised a dictator in power since 1969. “Take Gaddaffi for example,” he said, “ He has implemented a reform known as ‘the People’s Provincial Congresses.’ District by district assemblies of local tribes and elders are held. They debate matters and present requests to the government and to their leader. They are creating a system that is in between a parliamentary system, which is not like ours, and one in which there was no outlet for the popular base, such as in Tunisia. Every week Gaddaffi visits these assemblies and listens. I believe these are positive signals.” We now have a great novelty. The Libyan Colonel has invented a new tribal form of democracy! There are instead many questions to be answered. Is democracy universal or not? Is a right just like freedom and dignity? Or is it just a privilege for few? Must one bear in mind that Egypt’s parliament was founded in 1867, before Italy’s Unification? What does stability mean? Are we discussing the stability of regimes or that of the people?
As a secular member of the political opposition and a supporter of democracy in his country, Tunisia, and in the Arab world, in an interview with La Stampa, Moncef Marzouki warned western public opinion, revealing clearly the trick used by Arab dictators in exploiting the extremist issue. “The context of short-sighted politics and fear of Islamism have resulted in the belief that strong regimes were necessary. The Islamism that Ben Ali boasted he had destroyed is that of a moderate party, a right-wing party, rather like the Christian Democrats in Italy. It was the opposite of the Taliban and Ben Ali always tried to amalgamate them, saying that all Islamists are Taliban, when instead things are very varied and include moderate parties such as those in Morocco or in Jordan.” Moncef Marzouki also added, “There is no Islamist danger here, this is a secular country, rather like Turkey, with a modernist tradition, a strong feminist movement and a strong middle class. Should elections be held Islamists would at best win 20-30% of votes. In recent weeks there has not been single Islamist slogans. The Italians, the French and the Spanish support Ben Ali because they believe he is a bulwark against fanatics and can act as a border police force. Beware! Regimes such as the Tunisian and the Algerian ones will instead multiply emigrants fleeing poverty and will create jihadists. You are going against your own values and against your own interests.”
I believe that the reference model in today’s Arab societies is not Khomeini’s Iran, but the Iran of the young who joined the Green Wave two years ago. And I believe that the elites, especially the Islamists, are looking to Erdogan’s Turkey with interest and admiration. The great challenges posed by the present consist in conciliating democracy and Islam, traditions and modernity, the past and the future.
Translated by Francesca Simmons