On October 25, Alpini Regiment’s Corporal Tiziano Chierotti died in a fire fight about twenty kilometres from Baqwa, in the province of Farah, one of the FOBs still under Italian control. Only 24 hours later, in Maymana, in the northern province of Faryab, a man blew himself up in a mosque on the first day of Eid killing 41 people. Many of those who died were soldiers and local policemen guarding the place of worship on that “delicate” Friday. It is the Afghan troops who have lost the most men, about 500 so far this year, often the targets of so-called insurgents, a galaxy of many different groups ranging from Taliban combatants to opium traffickers who have no intention of handing over to others control over their already meagre and dangerous transport and communications routes.
Every tragedy in the country fuels an international and a local debate about the timing and the ways in which the roadmap, drafted at the 2010 Lisbon summit and finalised last May in Chicago, will be implemented.
In April 2010, NATO’s foreign ministers drafted a timetable for the transition in Afghanistan, the objective of which is to handover to the country full decision-making authority for strategic choices. On July 20 that same year at the Kabul Conference, the international community reiterated its support for the country, in order to hand over the leadership of all military operations in all provinces by the end of 2014. In the document signed on that occasion, the concept of the transition period is explained not as the withdrawal of ISAF troops, but as a gradual handing over of power, and then implementing a supportive and mentoring role in order to contribute to the achievement of security, governance and development objectives. In this context the document also addresses the evolution of Provincial Reconstruction Teams, which have until now contributed to the creation of infrastructures and projects with civil society by making available funds and know-how.
At the May 20, 2012 NATO summit in Chicago, an explicit commitment was made to end ISAF involvement by the end of 2014, while Afghan forces will take command of all operations throughout the country by mid-2013. The post-2014 mission will have a less military characteristic and one that is more involved in training and consultancy.
Some weeks ago, the Governor of Herat, Daud Shah Saba, reiterated the importance of cooperation with Italy, now responsible for Regional Command West, an area that includes the provinces of Herat, Badghis, Farah and Ghor. During a university conference on the preservation of the country’s archaeological heritage, attended by the architect Andrea Bruno with his lectio magistralis, Shah Saba spoke of progress made thanks to cooperation with international troops and asked for this commitment to be renewed. On that occasion, General Biagio Abrate, Chief of the Defence Staff, guaranteed that 2014 would not mark the withdrawal of troops but a change in intervention.
According to data published by the World Bank, in 2010 Afghanistan received $15.7 billion in aid and, at the Tokyo Conference held in July, a decision was made to provide the government in Kabul with aid amounting to $16 billion a year for the next four years. The economic sectors in Afghanistan with the best development prospects are agriculture, transport and above all natural resources, the most attractive to foreign investors. It is the exploitation of copper, gold and hydrocarbons that could provide revenue capable of replacing international aid, at least to a certain extent.
In the meantime, India and China are showing rising interest in Afghanistan and in access to its resources. It is in fact essential for India to counterbalance the influence exercised by Pakistan. Since 2006 India has been involved in the construction of a dam at Salma, in the province of Herat, having already provided $80 million in financing and recently announced that additional funds will be allocated that may double the investment made. The objective is to exploit water to produce electricity that so far has been supplied to Herat by nearby Iran. In September, China signed a memorandum of understanding with Kabul, involving providing Afghan finances with aid amounting to $150 million for reconstruction as well as financial and technical aid. Furthermore, China has already invested $3.5 billion in the mines in Aynak, in the province of Logar, and also begun exploration of three oilfields in the northern provinces of Sar’e Pul and Faryab.
In the meantime, the government in Kabul has introduced the Mines Protection Units, specialised units created to protect plants and communications infrastructures in order to guarantee better security to foreign companies planning to invest in the country.
There are still many question marks as far as Afghanistan’s future is concerned, because the success of the transition period is linked to a series of variables, among them the Afghan Army’s capability to really take charge of security over a relatively short period, and the result of the coming elections planned precisely for 2014.
The Peace Research Institute in Oslo, the United States Institute of Peace and the Chr. Michelsen Institute have published a research based on 122 interviews in Afghanistan with political leaders, economists, soldiers and members of civil society, posing questions concerning the future of the peace process. What emerges is a widespread persuasion that the Afghan situation is characterised by a mix of internal and external factors, and that negotiations for stability must continue with all those involved, however fragmented these groups may be. One editor, for example, said that although military intervention had been essential, one cannot ignore the fact that among the so-called Taliban, there are at least six different groups (Kandahari, Haqqani, Mansoor, Wahabiti, Salafiti, Hezb’e Islami), without taking into account external players often influenced by Pakistan. One widespread opinion is that without effective intervention against corruption, the country will never become autonomous. Even a number of political representative of provinces expressed doubts regarding the current central government and the fact that in Afghanistan, power is in the hands of just a few people, not necessarily part of the institutions, such as the so-called warlords who are still fighting to maintain control over the most inaccessible areas that are also distant from the idea of a state.
Translated by Francesca Simmons
Photo: Afghan boy at Gudham Shahar Camp in Mazar-i-Sharif, 2001, United Nations Photo