Two years after October 7, 2023, the Middle East is undergoing a profound transformation. The devastation in Gaza and the collapse of the two-state solution have accelerated a redefinition of regional power dynamics, affecting every state in the region. Israel is more isolated yet increasingly assertive; Iran, weakened by the decline of its regional allies, is forced to recalibrate its strategy; Syria and Lebanon remain suspended between fragile sovereignty and new dependencies; and the Gulf monarchies are turning inward, intent on safeguarding their domestic agendas.

These shifts are the focus of Reset’s new dossier. Ambassador Pasquale Ferrara traces the logic of the U.S. peace plan and warns against the risk of an “armistice without a solution.” Former Israeli minister Yuli Tamir and political scientist Olivier Roy examine the limits and ambiguities of the agreement—from the Hamas question and the erosion of Palestinian civil society to the prospects for peaceful coexistence. Pegah Zohouri analyzes Iran’s strategic dilemmas and the crisis of the “Axis of Resistance,” while journalist Riccardo Cristiano explores the fragile balance between Syria and Lebanon after Assad’s fall and Hezbollah’s retrenchment. Geopolitical analyst Luca Marin considers how the Gulf states, through their Vision programs and emerging security architectures, aim to preserve their paths to modernization. Finally, Turkish dissident Cengiz Aktar reflects on Ankara’s role in shaping the region’s new order.