Central Europe caught in the middle
The exceptions among European politicians will only be the Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. The head of the Czech Republic Milos Zeman, who announced a visit to Moscow some time ago, had been expected to attend the parade, however, in the end he symbolically chose to place a wreath before leaving and travelling to attend a bilateral meeting with the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. He too will be in the Russian capital, but, like Zeman, will not follow the military event. That at least is what the Czech president’s press office has announced, thereby revealing Fico’s plans.
This has all caused a degree of embarrassment in Bratislava, although nothing significant when compared to the amazing diplomatic clash that has occurred between Zeman and America’s representative in Prague, Andrew Shapiro. Speaking on Czech television, Shapiro described as ‘inelegant’ the presence of the head of state at the May 9th commemorations. Zeman in turn reacted angrily, with his spokesperson explaining that from now on the American ambassador would be entering Prague Castle (seat of the presidency) only for official ceremonies, but would no longer be permitted to request audiences.
Another central European politician, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, recently experienced a number of problems with American diplomacy, which did not spare its criticism of policies implemented in Hungary and considered not entirely compatible with democratic values as well as being excessively oriented , especially in the current period, towards good relations with Russia. Moscow provides a great deal of energy to Budapest and has invested in modernising the Hungarian nuclear energy infrastructures. Trade relations are significant and Orban does not wish to sacrifice all this on the altar of the Ukrainian cause, although it has adapted to EU sanctions against Moscow and to the deployment of rapid reaction forces to the East as requested by NATO.
That is precisely the point in Hungary and in the rest of central Europe. Inter-exchanges, investments, energy; relations with Russia are intense in all sectors. So intense that at times history’s slippery slope takes second place. There are references to memories of the long Communist period, encouraged by the Red Army’s advance from Stalingrad to Berlin. The most popular thesis is that this was the first act of submission to Moscow, which ended only with the 1989 peaceful revolutions. Not everyone, however, expresses such clear cut opinions. Zeman and Fico are an example of this. They acknowledge Russia played a key role in ending Nazi-Fascism, regardless of all that happened after this. It is this too, alongside the need not to damage economic relations, that is the reason for their “lame” visit to Moscow.
The Baltic states and Poland are, in any case, following a different path. They instantly sided with the Ukrainian revolution, supporting a hard line as far as the Kremlin is concerned, and suggesting that the rest of Europe should assume an even tougher stand. As far as May 9th is concerned, the presence of Polish, Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian heads of state and government in Moscow has been categorically excluded. They will all meet in Gdansk a day earlier, joined by many important European politicians. This initiative was wanted by the Polish President Bronislaw Komorowskiat , and, although it is well-known that as far as the anniversary of the end of the war is concerned the dates in the West and the East do not coincide (Germany signed the armistice when it was already May 9th in Moscow), never before has the European elite deserted Red Square en masse to meet elsewhere. The Ukrainian issue has caused a very violent rift.
Everyone to Gdansk
Administered by the League of Nations between the two wars, but arrogantly retaken by Hitler, Gdansk is the city in which on September 1st 1939 the Third Reich started operations to conquer and destroy Poland. This was the first act of World War II. Clashes spread to the Westerplatte Peninsula, the last stretch of land touched by the waters of the Vistula before they flow into the Baltic Sea. Further east, a few days later, Soviet troops crossed the border with Poland, occupying the east on the basis of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact. Those lands, nowadays divided between Ukraine, Byelorussia and Lithuania, were never returned.
This city has also another important meaning. It is the place that, in 1980, saw the birth of Solidarnosc, the great political-trade union organisation that sparked Poland’s liberation from Muscovite Communism. A cathartic moment not restricted just to Poland and a decisive one for the entire East.
Thus it all falls into place. Gdansk assumes a dual symbolism. It expresses the horror of Nazi aggression, the challenge Hitler launched at Europe, but it is also the source of the East’s liberation from Moscow, reminding one that at the beginning of World War II, Russia developed policies that were not exactly snow white as far as its neighbour was concerned. The anniversary of seventy years ago therefore is combined with a clear message that Warsaw and Europe send to Russia, considered the guilty party as far as the war in Ukraine is concerned. Moscow has lamented a manipulation of history, but that is how things stand.
There is more linked to these commemorations in Gdansk; the fact is that two days later, on May 10th, Komorowski is running for re-election. Rhetoric on Russian revanchism can be useful during an election, also in view of another important election to be held this year, the October general election. The party in government, the Civic Platform (PO), of which Komorowski is a member, does not intend to leave to the Law and Justice Party (PIS) the monopoly of objections against Russia and the cause of Ukrainian independence.
Finally, should one wish to add a little sarcasm, one could underline another important characteristic assumed by Gdansk over the years. For obvious reasons, the Baltic city has become a pillar in the reconciliation process between Poland and Germany. On various occasions, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has met on the Baltic shores with former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, now president of the European Council. They are said to get along extremely well. On May 8th Merkel will once again be in Gdansk. On May 9th she will miss the Moscow event and instead visit on May 10th to meet Putin. It is not hard to read the meaning of this series of appointments. At the cost of economic losses, considering the quality and quantity of trade relations with Moscow, Berlin has no intention of appearing weak. Hope that the dialogue with the Kremlin will not be interrupted, however, remains, also because should Putin become totally isolated, the Ukraine may vanish. And in this sense, if Poland is playing an attacking game, Germany is trying to be the referee.