Europe? No longer an “essential objective” for Turkey
Nicola Mirenzi 27 February 2013

After constant press hints suggesting that Ankara is turning its back on the West and increasingly looking towards the East, Akp, the Moderate Islamic party’s leader has stated that “it is not the end of the world if they do not let us enter the European Union”. Yet again accusing Europe of slowing down the membership process, which its government and nation so firmly wanted.

So far a step backwards, then, a new step forward: on February 12 – through its Minister for Foreign Affairs, Laurent Fabius – François Hollande’s new France announced its intention to remove a veto on one of the five negotiation chapters blocked by the EU, the one on regional policy. The news arrived after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu. However, the road towards Turkey’s total adhesion is still marred by obstacles, or rather by vetoes. Ankara has to close thirty-five chapters to enter into European consensus. Of these, sixteen face the looming rejection by a Member State or the Commission itself.

This is an unnerving path, which tends to imply a pernicious doubt. Prime Minister Erdogan has stated numerous times that delays in his country’s adhesion to the EU are not technical objections but political and cultural ones at heart. In other words if Europe so wanted, Ankara would become a Member State overnight. This perspective is rapidly gaining ground in Turkey. Indeed, the number of Turks who believe that the conditions and vetoes imposed by Europe are simply tactics to slow down a process, which will never actually materialise, is on the rise. Why? Europe cannot include a Muslim country in its circle, and behind closed doors, what Erdogan has said is also being echoed by some Europeans.

Ankara’s frustration has become proverbial. The big news is that the highest degree of unease has been reached. Erdogan has said that instead of Europe, Turkey could choose to enter the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an organization that already includes Russia, China and Central Asian states in its fold. For some Turkish editorials and international observers this is a bluff. According to the online newspaper Pravda.ru: “the first thought that springs to mind on this statement’s objective is that Turkey is trying to express its disappointment at the stalling of negotiations on its access into the European Union”.

In reality, Erdogan’s Turkey is also looking for a solid outlet for its growing economy. It is doing so to satisfy its needs as a great Middle-Eastern geopolitical player who perceives the weakness in which Europe, harassed by internal political problems, struggles and is therefore trying to look elsewhere. Yet, Turkey’s playground is not infinite. For example, the United States, big sponsors of Turkey’s entry into the EU could perceive Turkey’s admission to the Shanghai Corporation Organization (an organization, which is seen as an anti-American bastion in Central Asia) as incompatible with Turkey’s commitments to NATO. This issue does not weigh lightly on Ankara.

According to the director of International Crisis Group in Istanbul, Hugh Pope, by attacking the Union Erdogan is only trying to gain popularity. As he explains in an interview with the New York Times, “Turks are not simply frustrated by delays in the adhesion process but also by strict rules that they face in order to travel within Europe”.

Instead, for Murat Yetkin in Hurryet Daily News, “it is clear that relations between Turkey and the European Union cannot go very far, another chapter this year, an agreement built on air the next”. In any case it appears – he adds – “that neither Turkey nor Europe are capable of declaring the divorce first, perhaps because they both know that this would be a strategic faux pas”.

So here we are again back to the stop and go, hit and run scenario. But for how long can it still last?

Translation by Maria Elena Bottigliero

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