Candidates and parties in the running
Out of the roughly 5,000 who registered, (5,395) only 3,444 were approved, resulting in over three thousand candidates for 290 seats. Looking at the data, it appears that this time the Council of Guardians, responsible for assessing the eligibility of the candidates running in the Iranian elections, have been slightly more liberal. There had however also been a filter applied at a lower level, thanks to the extremely rigid criteria which ensured that only those having a Masters degree or an equivalent diploma in theological studies, in addition to the usual requisites, would be permitted to register. Two hundred and sixty of these candidates are seeking re-election, while at least thirty of those excluded are current Members of Parliament, five of them involved in a $2.5 billion fiscal fraud case.
It is said that among those excluded there are many who are linked to Ahmadinejad, to the extent that the president has been obliged to present much younger politicians inevitably less linked to the regime and not as well-known. Officially, however, Ahmadinejad has said that he will not support any of the candidates, not that this will make much of a difference since in Iran, unlike the presidential elections, these general elections rely mainly on political parties and alliances rather than on individual personalities. The main competition is no longer, as usual, between the Conservatives and the Reformists, but Conservatives against Conservatives. This seems to be a paradox.
The largest group is a broad coalition led by the leader of the Assembly of Experts, the Ayatollah Mahdavi-Kani, which includes the Speaker of the House, Ali Larijani, the mayor of Teheran and President Ahmadinejad himself. The United Front, Jebhe Mottahede Osulgerayan in Persian, is not as united as its name appears to indicate, if it is true that relations between its most important members have been unsettled for some time. Rivalry between the president and the Speaker of the Majles has exploded often in recent months and culminated in parliament asking to question Ahmadinejad on issues linked to the management of the country’s economy.
On the other hand, but basically within the same camp, there is instead the group led by the Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, in which many former ministers and former presidential officials have converged. They too are Conservatives belonging to the Stability Front, (Jebhe Paydari in Farsi), which has assumed very harsh positions against the Green Wave, the Reformists and the “principalists” of the United Front. Should they win these elections, the president’s job during the last year of his mandate would certainly be a great deal easier. There are also two other smaller conservative parties, the Resistance Front, Jebhe Istadegi, close to the 2009 presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, former head of the Pasdaran, and a new party called The Voice of the People, (Jebhe sedaye melat).
Whatever the results, it is certain that the reformists will not be present in the next Iranian unicameral assembly. Although the Ministry of the Interior has announced that 14% of the candidates are Reformists, they are the great absentees in this election. Deprived of candidates such as Mir Hussein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, still under house arrest, and while members less known such as journalists, intellectuals and political advisers are in prison or abroad, the Reformists have chosen to totally abandon the match.
The voters
Posters, billboards and leaflets are distributed at street corners and there have been debates and press conferences, but no televised debates as happened in the very closely fought 2009 election campaign. Three years after the dubious presidential elections, the atmosphere in Iran is far less heated, as is perhaps the involvement of voters. There are about 48 million Iranians called upon to renew the Assembly and the election campaign officially began on February 23rd and ends on March 1st, 24-hours before the polling stations open, with the penalty for noncompliance being exclusion from the elections.
In the 2008 general election turnout was 55% and is expected to reach 60% this year. Are these optimistic forecasts? Compared to 2008 and 2009, the situation in the country has certainly deteriorated, both as far as the economy is concerned and the international context. On one hand the threat of a possible war with Israel and pressure this applies on Barack Obama, also involved in an important election campaign, could become an aggregating factor for the people. The regime is relying on this patriotic sentiment and the same applies to candidates who, in their posters, quote the Supreme Guide calling for an “active” vote and saying “the greatness of the nation is in the eyes of its enemies.”
On the other hand, however, on-line and on social networks there is a great lack of interest, especially among the young, those most disappointed by the last elections, who instead are excited by the triumph at the Oscars of the film “A separation”. There are also those using the image of Neda Agha Soltan (the young girl killed in 2009 during a protest) who write, “This time I will not vote,” or “there are no fair elections in Iran”. There are some who hypothesise that “even Ahmadinejad’s champions have been asked to boycott the election,” just as requested by Green Wave supporters in the hope, perhaps, that their obvious absence will turn into an advantage.
The election campaign
The economic issue remains at the centre of the electoral campaign in Iran and is of the greatest importance, even more so than the nuclear issue and the disagreements with the West on which almost everyone agrees. Conservatives or Reformists do not in fact doubt the country’s right to equip itself with nuclear technology. What changes instead is the diplomatic approach of both these fronts.
The intensification of sanctions and the international economic-financial crisis have affected the country’s economy, although its leaders speak reassuringly of their own autarchy and solid bonds with other economic partners. Since the beginning of the Ahmadinejad presidency the cost of living has progressively risen, as has the devaluation of the Iranian currency, the ryal, also due to restrictive measures for banks.
In the last eighteen months, the government has been obliged to reduce or eliminate part of the benefits for the population for buying petrol, energy and other essential goods. The last plan approved by parliament and in force as of March 20th, envisages further cuts and the abolition of financial aid for about three million families. According to the Ministry of the Economy, quoted by the Tehran Times, there are 74 million Iranian families receiving state benefits, almost 100% of the population.
It is no coincidence that the great Islamic coalition, which includes most Conservatives, has presented a programme based entirely on promoting welfare, reducing inflation and unemployment. During Friday prayers last week, even the Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, a member of the Assembly of Experts, asked candidates to draw attention to programmes addressed at improving living standards.
Bloggers, the internet and the web black out
According to Amnesty International, bloggers and journalists continue to be targeted by the Iranian government. For these elections, organisations have reported a new wave of arrests since the beginning of the year as a reaction to the provision of the Minister of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi, against the “boycotters of the electoral process.” Quoted by the Iranian news agency ISNA, Moslehi reported the many arrests of Iranians “in touch with foreign personalities thanks to the internet,” and involved in “sabotaging the ninth general election.”
At the beginning of February, the Mehr News agency reported the arrest of a number of journalists, or aspiring reporters, working for the BBC’s Farsi channel. BBC Persian and the Voice of America are two western Persian language satellite channels listened to by millions of Iranians, especially in the capital, where, in spite of the ban, there are many satellite dishes adorning rooftops. The duel fought at a distance between the British and American broadcasters is an old story and reached its peak during the most intense moments of the 2009 protests, when both networks managed to provide broad coverage of events in the streets and the demands of the reformists. It was then that the British correspondent Jon Leyne was expelled from the country and replaced after a black out period by James Reynolds.
In the meantime, Google, Facebook and Twitter, the main channels of communication for young people and activists, continue to suffer temporary lock downs. The last massive one dates back a couple of weeks, when 30 million users were allegedly silenced for a number of days. Problems are also currently being reported. In these cases there is usually a task force of volunteers who react by forcing all the blocks through ‘rendering.’ It is like an obstacle race with a battle between hackers, so much so that at the beginning of the year the Minister for Information envisaged the creation of a national IT system in order to bypass Google and the others.
Tranlated by Francesca Simmons
Image: (cc)