Why the reference to 1989?
We are short-sighted as far as the Arab world is concerned and the events of 1989 can help us understand what is happening in this region. 1989 instantly affects our imagination. When we speak of people power we use 1989 as an example, we refer to those revolutions by the people, to those who, driving Trabants, stopped at the Iron Curtain and knocked on the West‘s door. All that did not come about suddenly. There were the conditions for a revolution to be started and conditions that created dissent, mass dissent. The same is happening today. There is mass dissent in the Arab world, the revolution is no coincidence and as in 1989, it will not stop. But there are other analogies too.
Such as?
Twenty years ago in Eastern Europe there were the samizdat. Now it is the same, it is just that instead of fliers, appeals and clandestine publications they use the internet and social networks. Another element is the role played by the young. In 1989, in Hungary, the members of the main opposition party Fidesz were exclusively young. Those over the age of 35 were not permitted to join. In Egypt now the young are the ones playing the leading roles in the revolution. It is the young who fill the streets and squares and it is they who broadcast the revolution online. Has anyone in Europe noticed this? The young in Cairo are portrayed as an element of folklore, as if not fully part of events and when here there is talk of future political scenarios there is no mention of them. There is talk of the Muslim Brotherhood, secularists and ElBaradei, but not a word about the young. The young wanted and led this revolution and of one does not speak of them one is ignoring a fundamental piece of the puzzle.
Does the fact that we take no notice of them indicate that we westerners do not have profound knowledge of the Arab world?
There is a degree of ignorance and not only regarding the role played by the young. When Mubarak announced he would not stand in the September presidential elections, some spoke of a “compromise around the corner.” That was a wrong assessment and not only because Mubarak’s words are a test for the protesters and the people, confirmed by the fact that repression continued. The point is that from now until September many months must pass and the Egyptians will not stop. The dam of fear has now been destroyed and it is Egypt’s history itself that reminds us of this since in is yet another element we have forgotten. The 1952 revolution started in January and ended in July. During those months the people never even considered giving up. The same is happening now, and faced with Mubarak’s words Egyptians will react, They have no intention of having this revolution delegitimized.
What role will the Muslim Brotherhood play if the revolution succeeds?
Once again there are many misinterpretations. Many say that the Muslim Brotherhood is a danger and there is the risk of Islamism That is what Mubarak has always said, nothing more. It is a mistake to label all Islamic movements as extremist. This tendency satisfies a specific political plan and is one implemented in bad faith. What is really happening within the Muslim Brotherhood, and generally in the conservative, moderate and “centrist” Islamic movements, is that Turkey is increasingly perceived as a model. But the Arab regimes have banned these movements. By banning the Muslim Brotherhood, Mubarak has only made things worse, encouraging other more dogmatic movements such as the Salfites, which in these years has grown thanks to the regime and gained momentum. It is necessary and inevitable that talks will have to be held with the Muslim Brotherhood. If we observe our own history we can find the reasons for this need for dialogue. When fascism fell in Italy, a committee for national liberation was created formed by all opposition movements, conservatives, liberals, socialists, secular movements, communists and Catholics. The Christian Democrats had a clear religious vocation. Where they excluded? Not at all; in fact they contributed to the rebirth of democracy. The same happened in Germany with the CDU. So why should the Muslim Brotherhood not be taken into account in Egypt? American think tanks have been speaking for years of the need to include them in the transition process.
Let us return to 1989 when Eastern countries fell one after the other. Will there be a domino effect in the Arab world too?
There is a saying in the Arab world. “What happens in Cairo also happens elsewhere.” Cairo is a window open over the rest of the region. Tunisia was the first to revolt, it is true. But the revolution is taking place in Cairo and this is not just an Egyptian revolution. For all Arabs, Egypt is the mother of the world. It appears effectively that the protest is spreading. In Libya a protest event was organised and then later cancelled. In Algeria things are moving. In Morocco two people set themselves on fire. The cabinet reshuffle in Jordan added to recent statements from the president of Yemen – “I will not stand again for election nor will my son” – indicates that Middle Eastern regimes know that with a spark set off in Cairo anything can happen anywhere.
Translated by Francesca Simmons