«The arena in which global powers compete»
Ahmed Rashid talks to Maria Elena Viggiano 9 June 2010

What is the current situation in Central Asia?

President Obama has announced that the USA wants to leave Afghanistan starting in July 2011, and, for this reason, Kabul is preparing to face the future situation. This obviously creates enormous regional tensions. Pakistan is trying to control negotiations between the Taliban and the government led by Karzai, who instead is not allowing this to happen. There is a war between India and Pakistan in which the theatre is Kabul. There are tensions with Iran, a country that will certainly play a fundamental role in the development of agreements for finding a solution for Afghanistan. One must not underestimate the active role played by Russia, and, if we are not careful, we will once again be confronted with a situation has arose during the Nineties, that could be very dangerous. I think therefore that there is the need for strong initiatives by the international community or a regional agreement to avoid competitiveness or a “proxy war.”

What importance does Central Asia have in the current geopolitical set-up?

Central Asia is the place where global powers compete. The Russians want pipelines from Uzbekistan to cross Russia towards the west, while the west does not want gas pipelines to pass through Russia and Turkey. China has now become the region’s main commercial partner and exercises great influence, as well as uniting with Russia against the USA’s excessive and continuous interference in most of the countries in Central Asia. The Americans have stated that they will have bases only in Uzbekistan and Kirghizstan, while Afghanistan suspects that these bases will become permanent. Hence there is great rivalry between nations. I have to say that, simultaneously, all countries in Central Asia must deal with extreme social tension caused by increased poverty, the recession and the economic crisis that has affected this part of the world in a very serious manner.

And yet these regions are rich in natural resources. What is strategically important for other countries such as China and Russia?

Gas and oil are extremely important and China has significant interests, having built the longest pipeline in history. This gas pipeline starts in Turkmenistan and, after crossing Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, arrives in China. Central Asia therefore satisfies the need for gas in these regions, for Russia, Turkey, China and the Western countries. There are therefore enormous interests at stake, also considering that new fields have been discovered, especially in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, thus the total potential of the region is still to be discovered. Competition for predominance in the area will therefore continue.

The Fergana Valley in Central Asia is the main area for operations by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. What affect will this have on the area’s stability?

After 9/11 the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) has become even more consolidated in the area and has set up bases in Pakistan. At the moment, however, we are seeing a phenomenon involving rising numbers of fighters, Uzbeks and Tajiks who travel from Pakistan towards northern Afghanistan, providing the Taliban with additional forces. Furthermore, they are also trying to revive the guerrilla movement in Central Asia, creating very difficult situations in these regions. These countries have dictatorial systems, without democratic and economic reforms, a condition worsened even more by the world crisis that has caused a decline in exports with serious repercussions above all for Tajikistan and Kirghizstan, which depend on exporting labour. At the moment, most of this workforce is returning to Central Asia because of the recession in Russia and the main threat is that the IMU may take advantage of this situation and attract even more recruits.

How can western countries intervene to avoid Central Asia becoming a potential threat?

Unfortunately western countries do not have policies to apply in Central Asia. The USA is only interested in terms of security and “intelligence”, and concerned with supplying its military bases from which troops and supplies are moved into Afghanistan. Neither does the European Union worry about having policies to implement in these regions, with a consequent serious lack of intervention by the West to help these states achieve stability. Furthermore, western countries are not prepared to invest money, and therefore I do not see the possibility in the future of a sort of Marshall Plan for Central Asia. Furthermore, the entire region is experiencing a very serious economic crisis, which will have to be addressed.

Translated by Francesca Simmons

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