This article has been originally published by the website Mizzima.com
They have not got the natural gas from Arakan, despite the investments by our companies, for it s going to China. The Burmese Army, the Tatmadaw, have not done a Bhutan type operation in its backyard in Sagaing to chase out northeast Indian rebels. Now there’s reason to believe they are no longer in a position to do a Bhutan in Sagaing. All the military formations deployed in Sagaing have been redeployed in the towns to quell the pitch of the pro-democracy movement led by the monks. India is pushing for use of the Sittwe port for its land-locked northeast — but if there’s a regime change in the country and the junta collapses, have our smart diplomats worked out a strategy to save the project. What has the junta given us so far that India has to go overboard to support its survival? Nothing really. We are chasing an illusion since 1995 — that by engaging the junta, our diplomats think they are countering Chinese influence. Chinese influence is deep and Beijing is too well entrenched in Burma for New Delhi to even think it can counter the Chinese influence. China is also working overtime on an exit strategy so that it can retain its influence in a post-junta Burma. By all indications, we are not. South Block is groping in the dark.
India may not join the Western style sanctions but it is time India puts on hold all its existing projects in Burma until the situation stabilises. That is the first gesture towards the cause of democracy in Burma but it is also a smart move to avoid putting in all the money that may be ultimately wasted. Secondly, India should come out in total support of the pro-democracy movement. It should call upon the military junta to stop repression and bloodshed and then push for a dialogue with a definite time frame for a phased return to democracy. If the junta does not listen and resorts to more bloodshed, India should suspend its trade with Burma until the situation changes. And our army has to prepare to take on the northeastern insurgents on the Indo-Burma border on its own because the Tatmadaw will not be much help anyway .Unless India plays a definite role in the restoration of democracy in Burma, it cannot regain the goodwill with the masses in that country . Only by playing a role in restoration of democracy can India redeem its ambition to be an Asian power.
Subir Bhaumik is the BBC’s Eastern India correspondent and a long time Burma watcher